Round one of the French Presidential election has got underway, with polls closing at 8pm local time with initial results due at about 9pm. Initial indications are that the turnout is high and set to surpass modern records at over 80% of eligible voters. My gut feeling is that this shows a worse than expected result for Le Pen is likely, the same way that an above-average turnout helped the center in the recent Dutch election a few weeks ago.
Final opinion polls showed the race as too close to call, with four candidates within sampling error of probable qualification for the second round. The top two candidates will advance into a run-off second round scheduled for 7th May. The final poll taken before the election showed the center-right Macron on 24.5%, Le Pen on 23%, and Fillon and Melenchon tied for third place at 19% each.
Polls taken regarding hypothetical run-off scenarios show all the three other afore-mentioned candidates beating Le Pen in a straight fight. They also show Macron beating Fillon or Melenchon, and Melenchon beating Le Pen if the centrists’ “nightmare scenario” comes to pass.
