I wrote a short while ago about how the best way to trade commodities tends to be getting in early at major turns. To be more specific, you wait for the price to reach a long-term high or low price, preferably a very inflective “V” shaped level, and then watch closely for a fast, and strong rejection. A good example of this was my note to watch Crude Oil and Natural Gas at the start of last week – I exited the Natural Gas trade with a profit, while my long Crude Oil trade from the bounce close to $42.00 is still running.
The latest commodity to reach my radar screen in addition to Crude Oil is Silver, because it has just reached a new 6-month low price of $16.045 per ounce, which was a very inflective area when the area was touched last May. The low from May is marked at the blue line in the chart below:
The next step I will follow is to wait and watch very carefully before doing anything. Good, discretionary trades like these cannot be forced or rushed. We need to see compelling evidence of strong buying before being prepared to trade long here, as the price has been falling strongly and is clearly in a downwards trend. As today is a public holiday in the U.S.A., it would be a bad idea to enter tomorrow. We really need to wait for tomorrow to play out. What I need to see tomorrow is a strong bullish candle, closing near its high, and ideally well above the low at $16.06. If tomorrow brings a bearish candle with a close below the level at $16.06, then as far as I am concerned, there is no possible trade here, and the level is dead. So, for now, the plan is to watch and wait.