In yesterday’s preview of the upcoming FOMC Meeting Minutes release, I highlighted that the most probable tradable incident would be if the statement contained language doubting increasing inflationary pressure, going on to recommend that if this occurred, stocks and the AUD/USD currency pair should be the best vehicles to trade, in the long direction.
I was wrong about stocks, which barely moved and subsequently sold off, but I was right about the AUD/USD, which was already behaving bullishly, even before the release. The currency pair rose by more than 1% over the hours following the release, and even now has maintained most of that gain. Other formerly bullish currencies have not held up so well, most notably the Euro, which has been hit during today’s London session by comments from the European Central Bank.
Broadly speaking, though, yesterday’s release was not such a big deal. Almost every other currency has given up its gain against the U.S. Dollar, except the Japanese Yen, which is looking relatively strong. Apart from the Australian Dollar, the other big gainer was precious metals, with Gold holding up just like the Australian Dollar. Given that the two assets have historically exhibited a positive correlation, that is not a surprise. Gold is also in a long-term bullish trend, although the price is still below the long-term and very significant double top at $1295.00, just below the round number at $1300.00. Currently, I believe a reversal there is more likely to happen than a bullish breakout, but in either case, it is a key level worth watching as the Gold price gets closer to it.
Finally, the Japanese Yen is looking healthy. These days, it tends to benefit when Gold benefits, and is often the key counterweight to the U.S. Dollar, or in other words, the major destination of money flows out of the U.S. Dollar.