The Canadian Dollar took a hit today, as new GDP figures showed a shock decrease in economic growth over the last month. The headline rate came in as a fall of 0.1%, while the consensus forecast had been positive at 0.1%. The Loonie fell against a basket of currencies, and within a few minutes of the announcement was down by 0.58% against the U.S. Dollar, 0.45% against the Japanese Yen, and 0.53% against the Euro. So, although it was a substantial move, it was not of an especially dramatic size. Although the number was disappointing, it was blamed mostly on a contraction in the manufacturing sector, and it was the first fall in monthly GDP since October last year. This means the damage to the Loonie may not be great over the next month, but should November’s release also be negative, fears of a possible recession will mount and prompt a likely depreciation in the currency.
Apart from the movement in the Canadian Dollar, it has been a very quiet day in the markets, the kind of day where you must accept there is little money to be made. The British Pound is holding up, rising a little against the U.S. Dollar to challenge a resistant medium-term trend line confluent with an important psychological level at 1.3250. The USD/JPY has been picking up over the last couple of days, in terms of its short-term volatility, making a surprise rise to trade above the anticipated resistance at 113.28 when a further fall had been looking more likely.
Tomorrow should be a different story, as we can expect a lot more market activity as several items of important U.S. economic data are scheduled for release, as well as the typically crucial monthly FOMC Statement. It is also the first day of a new calendar month, which often sees rebalancing by large funds and banks which can cause strong and interesting market movements.