The chart below shows the ATR 15 (15-day average of price volatility) for the three major currency pairs, and the average of the three, over the last ten years. The three majors are EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. Together, they comprise over 80% of currencies exchanged worldwide by volume. The average of the three is market in the chart in black:
What is the most important thing that this chart can tell us? That volatility is at historically low levels, with each major Forex currency pair on average fluctuating by only about 0.60% in value over a typical day. Average volatility usually does not fall significantly lower than this, as a glance at the ten-year chart shows. The only time this “floor” was breached during the period was during the second and third quarters of 2014, when average volatility reached as low as 0.33%.
Low volatility usually means that it is difficult for traders to make money, and if you are finding it hard to make any money in the major Forex currency pairs right now, it might be because there is not a great deal of movement going on. After all, if the price isn’t really going anywhere, how can you take profit? You might think that volatility is all relative anyway – after all, isn’t taking 20 pips profit with a 10 pip stop loss just the same as 40 pips of profit with a 20 pip stop loss, if position sizing is equalized? Well, it doesn’t really work like that, partly because spreads and commissions don’t change, so are effectively “cheaper” when volatility is higher.
If you are feeling stuck with Forex, you could consider trading stock market indices and commodities, as most brokers are offering CFDs these days.