AUD/USD fell during the session on Monday as the Dollar continues to be on the back foot against most other currencies around the world in general, but finally had a good day against the Aussie. The commodity currencies will be especially sensitive to the tapering question coming out of the Federal Reserve, and because of this I think the Aussie will continue to be a bit of a battlefield in the near term.
The shape of the candle for Monday is a hammer, and this suggests that the Aussie will continue to be bid up going forward. The 0.95 level continues to be a massive resistance point going forward, and I believe it is there that the decision will be made when it comes to the overall direction of this pair. I believe that this market will eventually overcome it, but I am waiting for the daily close above that area, and I think that if we get above the 0.9550 level – this pair takes off to the upside, aiming for the parity level.
Gold markets are somewhat stagnant.
The gold markets continue to look somewhat stagnant recently, and that is why I believe that the Aussie will not get a boost from the precious metals markets, which is somewhat of a disadvantage that the market might have. The pair is probably more of a reflection of the Dollar than the Aussie, and because of this I think that the Federal Reserve should find itself being the center of attention when it comes to figuring out the next move.
The Australian Dollar will more or less be a reflection of the global demand for commodities in general, and also will be highly dependent on the Asian economies on the whole. The Chinese economic numbers that come out on Saturday – trade balance numbers – should also drive this market for the next few weeks as well, and because of this I think we may struggle to clear 0.9550 this week, but if we do – it would in fact be a strong sign because of it happening.
