The USD/ZAR has seen a bearish trend reemerge the past week of trading and this morning the currency pair is again testing support levels which have proven durable the past few weeks.
- As of this writing the USD/ZAR exchange rate is near the 18.21500 ratio with healthy trading being demonstrated.
- On the 5th of August the USD/ZAR was near a high of almost 18.68100 momentarily, this as a rush of buyers jumped into the currency pair when global market tensions caused a strong amount of risk adverse reactions via financial institutions.
- During that brief but nervous rise upwards speculators who believed the USD/ZAR had been overbought were certainly proven correct.
The move downwards in the USD/ZAR which has extended for more than a week and has produced values now which are lingering at technical support levels which have proven rather durable the past few weeks, putting the currency pair in a speculative position. The USD/ZAR was trading near the 18.15000 level on the 2nd of August, the Friday before Monday the 5th’s run higher.
Top Forex Brokers
Behavioral Sentiment of the USD/ZAR and U.S Economic Data
While global market assets reacted with a sea of nervousness early last week, financial institutions have now become calmer. The question is if large traders will continue to be tranquil. Domestic conditions in South Africa remain a concern for financial institutions, but there have not been any new major issues which have hurt the domestic market as the new government coalition seemingly attempts to mend long known issues. The highlight for USD/ZAR traders today and tomorrow will be U.S inflation data.
The USD/ZAR is within the lower part of its one month technical chart, but still remains above important support ratios around the 18.18000 to 18.12000 levels. The 18.20000 may prove to be a lower target as a testing ground in the hours to come, but after today’s U.S Producer Price Index report the USD/ZAR will react with choppiness. If the PPI data meets or comes in below expectations, traders should expect the USD/ZAR to test lower ground.
USD/ZAR Highlight Volatility to Come
If the USD/ZAR can maintain its current lower price elements going into tomorrow’s U.S CPI results, this will set the table for a speculative test for day traders. Financial institutions certainly expect the Federal Reserve to lower its interest rate in September, and to consider a cut in November. However, if tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index meets the anticipated outcome or comes in slightly stronger, this could set off fast conditions in the USD/ZAR which could spur some momentary buying.
- Financial institutions are trying to figure out if the U.S Fed will cut the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% or 0.50% in September.
- Safe betting likely is being cautious that only a 0.25% will be seen.
- But if CPI numbers are lower than expected tomorrow this could create strong selling of the USD/ZAR.
- Volatility will strike tomorrow in the currency pair, traders should be careful.
USD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 18.22200
Current Support: 18.20010
High Target: 18.26500
Low Target: 18.14100
Ready to trade our Forex daily analysis and predictions? Check out the top forex trading brokers in South Africa worth using.