The USD/ZAR went into the weekend with a slight reversal higher, this after displaying the low for the week only a few hours before as financial institutions tested their sentiment.
- The USD/ZAR currency pair is trading near the 17.92900 level as of this writing which is approaching values seen last Wednesday.
- The past week of trading in the USD/ZAR has produced cautious choppy trading as financial institutions have had their outlooks tested by conflicting sentiment surrounding Federal Reserve interest rates policy.
- The USD/ZAR remains within a healthy correlation to the broad Forex market and its move higher has taken place under the shadow of a heavily USD centric mindset.
After the U.S published weaker than expected jobs numbers on Friday the USD/ZAR sank to lows around the 17.59500 mark momentarily. This ratio was short-lived because while large traders may have initially reacted with USD/ZAR selling, it is likely their sentiment regarding a more aggressive U.S Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts was dampened when Fed member Williams from New York sounded cautious regarding the Federal Funds Rate change that will take place on the 18th of September.
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Cautious Winds and the USD/ZAR this Week
Day traders should be extremely cautious too today and the remainder of this week with the USD/ZAR. While the currency pair may look overbought at its current levels, nervousness in the broad financial markets may produce choppy results in the near-term which will test behavioral sentiment as investors seek price equilibrium. Traders should also note the Consumer Price Index data will be published this Wednesday in the U.S and affect the USD/ZAR.
Having been able to produce solid bearish movement in the USD/ZAR, traders cannot be faulted for thinking the currency pair will resume a downwards trajectory. However, if global asset remain nervous in the short and near-term, this will likely create a search for safe haven assets too – which means the USD could get stronger if nervousness increases.
Lack of Clarity and the USD/ZAR
It is a positive thing to say the USD/ZAR is not being bought because of domestic nervousness in South Africa. The USD is getting stronger because there is a lack of clarity regarding U.S Fed policy which will be presented in about ten days.
- While all investors know a 0.25% rate cut at a minimum will be seen from the Fed, many investors are hoping for a bigger cut of 0.50%.
- The unknown regarding what the Fed will do is causing nervousness, and many financial investors believe the Fed may remain too cautious.
- The U.S inflation numbers this Wednesday will be interesting to watch and cause instant volatility for the USD/ZAR, until then choppy results in the currency pair should be expected.
USD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 17.95650
Current Support: 17.92800
High Target: 18.01100
Low Target: 17.88200
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