- The USD/INR is near the 84.0900 level as of this writing. The USD/INR 84.1000 mark remains tantalizing close but as of yet has not seen a sustained challenge above this ratio.
- The Reserve Bank of India is controlling the Indian Rupee with a firm grip and day traders who try to bet against this fact might as well simply knock their heads against a wall.
- The USD/INR can be traded on some brokerage platforms. Traders who decide to purse the currency pair need strict risk taking tactics.
The spread between the bids and asks for the USD/INR remain large and speculators are advised to use entry price orders to get the fill they are targeting. The rather durable resistance of the USD/INR may look firm, but it certainly needs to be noted the long-term trend of the currency pair has been higher. The question appears to be when the Reserve Bank of India will allow for the next incremental steps upwards to be taken in the USD/INR.
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84.0000 Level as an Accepted Rate of Exchange
The government of India maintains a tight grip on the value of the Indian Rupee and by allowing the USD/INR to climb above the 84.0000 level and permit the sustained highs shows they believe the public can handle this exchange rate. However, the trend higher in the USD/INR has also been steady and the question is when the 84.1000 level will be allowed to be penetrated and sustained. The range between the 84.1000 and 84.12000 to 84.1500 level are likely the next large targets for the USD/INR if there is no change of policy from the Reserve Bank of India.
Traders looking for correlation in the USD/INR to the global Forex market should not waste much of their time. Even with U.S jobs numbers coming tomorrow, the U.S election next Tuesday and the Fed FOMC decision next Thursday, the USD/INR may continue to languish within its known higher realm. Yes, if the Reserve Bank of India wanted to scare speculators and knock them out of positions, it might allow volatility downwards to come into the currency pair for a day or two, but this would be a speculative gamble. The trend higher with occasional bursts lower in the USD/INR has been seen on a steady basis.
Lows of 83.440 in Mid-September a Violent Reminder for Day Traders
The Reserve Bank of India did allow for a violent lower move in mid-September. This should not be forgotten by day traders. The USD/INR appeared to be trading comfortably around the 83.9800 realm on the 12th of September, when a sudden downturn appeared and remained for a week’s worth of trading.
This move lower likely knocked out speculators who were simply holding onto buying positions and sure the currency pair would go higher. The Reserve Bank of India punished these traders.
In other words taking things for granted in the USD/INR is dangerous.
The Reserve Bank of India has warned day traders to stay away from speculative positions with the Indian Rupee.
USD/INR Outlook for November 2024
Speculative price range for USD/INR is 83.9400 to 84.1500
Day traders of the USD/INR currency pair need to understand trading this currency pair specifically remains difficult. It is much easier for financial institutions to partake in the commercial trading of the USD/INR via cash forwards positions which are meant to allow for big businesses to conduct international transactions and guard values. The coming U.S election may have an affect on the trading of the USD/INR Reserve Bank of India policy over the mid-term, but speculators should not expect substantial changes in the near-term.
The move higher in the USD/INR has been strong, even though it has been relatively very slow. Taking advantage of this higher movement has to be done with entry price orders, very limited targets using take profit orders and the ability of a trader’s chosen broker to execute. Looking for slow incremental steps higher in the USD/INR for the month of November seems to be the reasonable outlook.
Ready to trade our monthly forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in India to check out.