Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0740.
- Set a stop-loss at 1.0400.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0400.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0740.
The EUR/USD exchange rate bounced back in the overnight session after a series of mixed economic data from the United States. It rose to a high of 1.0575, its highest level since November 20 and 2.35% from its lowest level this year.
US inflation is still strong
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge rose slightly in October. The headline Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) figure rose from 2.1% in September to 2.3% in October.
Excluding the volatile food and energy prices, the PCE figure rose from 2.7% to 2.8% during the month. More data showed that the number of initial jobless claims retreated from 215k to 213k last week, better than the median estimate of 215k.
These numbers came a day after the Fed published minutes of the last monetary policy meeting. The minutes revealed that officials were considering a gradual pace of interest rate cuts.
Therefore, with inflation taking longer than expected to get to the target of 2.0%, there are signs officials will decide to pause cutting rates in December.
More data released on Wednesday showed that the economy expanded by 2.8% in the third quarter, a slight decline from its 3% growth in the previous quarter.
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The EUR/USD will likely have muted activity on Thursday because US markets will be closed for the ThanksGiving holiday.
The key data to watch will be from Europe, which will publish the flash inflation numbers, which will likely provide more hints on what to expect from the ECB. Economists expect data from Spain and Germany to show that the headline CPI rose to 2.3% in November.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair bounced back after falling to a low of 1.0337 this week. It jumped to a high of 1.0576, a few pips below the key resistance level at 1.06, its lowest point in April this year.
The pair has moved slightly above the strong, pivot, reverse point at 1.0500 of the Murrey Math Lines. This rebound happened after the pair formed a small hammer candlestick pattern, a popular reversal sign.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the 50-day moving average at 1.0765. This view will become valid if it rises above the resistance at 1.0600. A drop below the support at 1.0400 will invalidate the bullish view as it will send a signal that there are more sellers in the market.
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