Potential signal:
If the USD/PHP level breaks above the 59.11 level, then I am going to start buying. I would have a stop loss at the 58.70 level and aim for the 60 PHP level.
- During my daily analysis of exotic currency pairs, watching the Philippine peso is interesting, because it gives you a look at what’s going on in the emerging markets overall.
- After all, the US dollar has been like a rocket against the Philippine peso, but suddenly got slammed at the 59 PHP level.
- Because of this, it sets up an interesting look to this market, because then you have to start asking the question of “is this a market that’s trying to break out, or is it a market that’s ready to drop significantly?”
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It’s that question that I think is interesting here, because it could give you an idea as to how things are going to play out for the US dollar against most emerging market currencies. Yes, the Philippines has been growing quite rapidly over the last couple of years, but then suddenly people started to worry about the world in general, and that drives a demand for the US dollar. Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that interest rates in America continue to grow, and that of course makes the US dollar more attractive because as many of you know, “money goes to where it’s treated best.”
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this pair is very bullish, but the short-term pullback and the fact that the 59 8 PHP level continues to be like a brick wall is a little bit concerning if you are overly bullish. Even if we do fall from here, then you need to keep an eye on the 58.15 PHP level, where the 50 Day EMA currently sits, which also happens to be where we had seen previous support.
That being said, this is one of those markets that is setting up for a fairly obvious trade, so it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out, because if we can break above the 59 PHP level, I’m very interested in going long the US dollar, and shorting not only the PHP, but several other emerging market currencies in the region.
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