By: Doug Rosen
Yesterday was quite a down day for the Swissy. On the daily time frame yesterday's daily candle poked the 21 ema just a bit and that does not mean it will fall, it could just be a touch that will push this pair back up, however, the 5 ema is beginning to point down and looks like it could cross below the 13 and cave in on price forcing it down.
Price is currently back below the resistance it had recently broken above at .9311 so if the daily 21 ema does not push price back up above that level then it will most likely be a down day for this pair meaning USD weakness and in my EUR/GBP analysis I pointed out that the EUR/GBP looks bearish which means GBP strength so a weak USD and strong GBP means that a GBP/USD long could be on the way. Oh, but we are talking about the Swissy, sorry (flash course on correlation). The daily stochastics for the Swissy is in the trade zone but it is pointing down.
On the 4 hour time frame the Swissy looks very bearish. Has broken below a highly respected trend line and has made its retracement back up and now has permission to fall. The lower Bollinger band is open and pointing down and price is below the 5 ema. The only support I see in the way of a short is the 4 hour 144 ema which usually gets respect during normal conditions. Most likely price will fall to the 144 ema, bounce up and make a fib back to the 5 ema, possibly as high as the 13 then continue to drop. Regardless of the reaction, most likely there will be a reaction but not a reversal but a decent opportunity to enter a short.
On the hourly time frame price also looking very bearish, recently fibbed up to the 21 ema and has begun to continue its drop. At the time i am writing this price is above the weekly M2 pivot but I don't think just that is alone to keep this pair from further downside.
Price is below the daily pivot point and on the 15 minute time frame the Swissy looks just as bearish as all other time frames. I expecting another down day for the Swissy. If price breaks above .9330 then I may change my bias and look for longs but I doubt this will happen.
