S&P 500
The S&P 500 fell during the course of the session on Thursday, breaking below the 2080 handle. By doing so, it looks as if the market is more than likely going to struggle at this point in time, but there is quite a bit of support just below so it’s likely that we will be choppy at best. Quite frankly, these types of markets may for great ways to lose money, so at this point in time I’m on the sidelines and waiting for a clearer supportive candle to be involved in. If we get that, it’s likely that the buyers will flood back into the market, but it won’t be easy regardless. If we can break down below the 2040 handle though, that would be an extraordinarily negative move. There is quite a bit of resistance just above the 2100 level though, so choppiness is probably what we will see more than anything else.
NASDAQ 100
The NASDAQ 100 fell significantly during the course of the session on Thursday, testing the 4360 handle. If we can break down below that area, essentially the bottom of the candle, that would be an extraordinarily negative sign, perhaps driving the market even lower. At this point though, if we get a daily candle that forms a supportive candle, then I would perhaps be a buyer. The meantime, I think you’re going to see quite a bit of volatility in the US indices, as the Federal Reserve and its intentions aren’t quite as clear as they once were. Employment continues to be fairly strong, so quite frankly it’s difficult to imagine what we are going to decide on. At this point though, you have to believe that the buyers are still nominally in charge.
If we do rally, I still believe that we try to get to the 4725 level, but that might be a target for the end of summer, if not the end of the year as there is so much in the way of noise and confusion out there.
