Monero has gotten hammered during the trading session on Thursday right along with the rest of crypto as risk assets across-the-board were sold off. As long as there are going to be concerns about risk appetite, it is almost impossible to imagine a scenario where alt coins such as Monero take off to the upside. Because of this, I do think that Monero is more likely than not to go looking towards the $150 level underneath, which was where the most recent bounce came from.
To the upside, we would need to take out the 50 day EMA, currently sitting at the $188.31 level. It is dragging lower, which suggests that we will continue to see more pressure to the downside. One thing is for sure, there is a lot of concern out there and therefore I think anything that is small in market capitalization will continue to cause quite a bit of concern. Ultimately, this is a situation where you are going to need to see some type of turnaround in risk appetite, which would more than likely be seen in Bitcoin, as it leads the way for all other currencies.
If we did break to the upside, you will see Bitcoin lead the charge like I said, and then you would take out the top of the 50 day EMA. If we get above there, then we more than likely would go looking towards the 200 day EMA. At this point, the 200 day EMA sits at the $219.44 level, which is also sloping lower. While Monero has been in a long term downtrend, I think it is easier to simply sell short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion. If we break down below the $140 level, it would be a fresh, new low, opening up the possibility of a move down to the $100 level. The $100 level is a reasonable target, but it takes quite a bit of time before we get down there. Anything below $100 would almost certainly be in concert with some type of “crypto winter” throughout the crypto markets, and therefore we would more than likely see crypto markets act like they did roughly 4 years ago, when they went sideways and did nothing for a long time. At that point, I will more than likely be accumulating.
