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Natural Gas Forecast: Continues to Make a Case for Breakout Longer-Term

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

In summation, the natural gas market represents a realm where a multitude of factors intertwine, encompassing technical intricacies and external influences. 

  • The natural gas market embarked on a curious trajectory as Friday's trading session unfolded—starting with a modest rise followed by a swift downturn.
  • This dynamic encapsulates the inherent volatility inherent in this market, highlighting the constant endeavors of traders and investors to steer prices in an upward trajectory.
  • Beneath this movement, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) emerges as a vital support level that's poised to capture considerable attention. This could very well entice value-driven investors to enter the fray.

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Zooming out for a broader market perspective, a discernible pattern surfaces—the much-talked-about 'rounded up bottom.' However, it's important to stress that this pattern doesn't inherently predict an instantaneous upward trend. Nonetheless, an array of factors is coalescing to lend credibility to the possibility of such an occurrence. The cyclical transition to cooler fall and winter seasons, characterized by increased natural gas demand, is an established trend. In addition, the geopolitical backdrop within the European Union adds complexity. Concerns surrounding Russian gas supply limitations and uncertainties in West African natural gas output introduce intriguing variables. Consequently, the prospect of Europeans turning to American liquefied natural gas sources could significantly influence the natural gas market.

Downward Price Corrections Could Emerge as Attractive Entry Points

A pivotal juncture lies ahead, marked by the crossing of the $3.00 threshold. Achieving this milestone would likely shift attention toward the 200-day EMA as the next target. This, in turn, might set the stage for a more ambitious aim, specifically the $5.00 milestone. Given this context, any downward price corrections at this juncture could emerge as attractive entry points for astute investors seeking advantageous positions. This proposition gains added credence through patterns observed in Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), hinting at substantial market participation during price declines.

In summation, the natural gas market represents a realm where a multitude of factors intertwine, encompassing technical intricacies and external influences. From the crucial role of the 50-Day EMA to broader market patterns, the seasonal demand shifts, and the nuanced repercussions of geopolitical shifts, these elements intricately shape the landscape. The prevalent trend underscores that price retracements can provide strategic investment opportunities, as supported by the observable behaviors of corresponding ETFs. Ultimately, informed market participants recognize the impending significant shifts that are poised to unfold in the coming months. It's pertinent to underscore that my intention is not to promote the sale of natural gas.

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Christopher Lewis
About Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
 

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