- The cautious tone of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve provided positive momentum for the EUR/USD currency pair, with gains reaching the 1.0835 resistance level and stabilizing around it at the time of writing the analysis.
Recently, US Federal Reserve officials admitted at their last meeting in January that there had been “significant progress” in reducing inflation in the United States of America. In the minutes of the January 30-31 meeting released yesterday, most Federal Reserve officials also said they were concerned about moving too quickly to cut the benchmark interest rate before inflation is sustainably returning to its 2% target. Moreover, there were only two “members” who were concerned about the opposite risk — that the Fed might keep U.S. interest rates too high for too long and cause the economy to weaken significantly or even slide into recession.
Will the Euro Rise in the Coming Days?
In this regard, according to Scotiabank, the EUR/USD currency pair could rise to the 1.0900 resistance level. According to forex trading platforms, the euro-dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) rose above 1.08 immediately after the release of the latest wage data in the euro zone and rose to its highest level in two weeks around 1.0830, as narrow ranges prevailed again.
Moreover, low volatility and strong stock markets combined to limit potential demand for the US dollar as markets await the release of key data releases. The overall situation is now much more balanced with a sharp decline in euro buying positions, limiting the scope for further euro selling.
According to the latest data, negotiated wage growth in the euro zone slowed to 4.46% in the fourth quarter of last year from 4.69% in the previous quarter, which was the highest reading since the start of the data series in 2005. For its part, ING Bank commented; "While we expect wage growth to moderate significantly over the course of 2024 on the back of falling inflation and weakening economic conditions, it should come as a relief in Frankfurt that negotiated wage growth fell from 4.7 to 4.5% in the fourth quarter."
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The bank added, "However, the decline in the fourth quarter is a small decline, and therefore we do not expect the European Central Bank to be in a particular hurry to decide on the first-rate cuts. It is too small to open the door to a rate cut by the European Central Bank in March."
According to ING Bank, “The June meeting – after another quarter of wages data – appears to be a good moment for us to cut interest rates by 0.25% for the first time.”
For its part, MUFG Bank points out that the stronger-than-expected US inflation data last week is still reverberating in the Forex currency markets. According to the bank, “Market participants have encouraged a further delay in expectations of the US Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut until the FOMC meeting in June. Moreover, we do not expect the January FOMC meeting minutes and/or comments from Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson and Governors Bowman and Waller to provide rate cut expectations this week.
For its part, Danske Bank has revised its expectations for US interest rates and now expects the first cut to come in May instead of March previously. He added, “Our long-term vision of strong structural growth and continued decline in inflation remains valid, and we believe that the US Federal Reserve will choose to make gradual quarterly cuts after that.” Generally, we see three cuts in 2024, in May, July and November (previously four).
Meanwhile, Danske Bank points out that the euro rate has been flexible; “Our bullish argument for the US dollar, which revolves around markets reducing expectations of interest rate cuts, has basically been exhausted,” he stated. However, this does not make us more pessimistic about the US dollar in the near term. One could argue that it is perhaps a bit surprising that the EUR/USD pair has not fallen further than it has over the past month when considering the resilience of US macro data. Also, Danske Bank believes that the euro will be vulnerable to a more significant sell-off if there is a significant setback in risk appetite and a decline in stocks. Ultimately, the Euro is expected to lose strength if there is a broader increase in volatility.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis and Forecast:
According to the performance on the daily timeframe chart above, the price of the EUR/USD currency pair is still in the early stages of an upward correction phase. Technically, the attempts will not succeed without bullish movement towards resistance levels at 1.0885, 1.0930, and the psychological resistance level at 1.1000 respectively. Conversely, during the same timeframe, returning to the support area around 1.0750 would signal an end to the current upward rebound attempts.
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