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Gold Analysis: Selling Pressure Despite Weak US Dollar

By Mahmoud Abdallah
Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.
  • Gold futures fell as financial markets digested the latest jobs data and witnessed a rebound in the US dollar.
  • Overall, gold prices have reversed their gains since the start of the trading week, with investors expecting a choppy pattern in the coming sessions ahead of the May jobs report.
  • Gold prices have pulled back to support at $2,315 an ounce, near their lowest in nearly a month, before settling around $2,326 an ounce at the time of writing.
  • Gold prices had cooled off since rising to their all-time high of $2,454, but they are still up over 13% since the start of 2024.

Gold Analysis Today 05/06: Selling Pressure Weak USD (graph)

In the same performance, silver prices, which is the sister commodity to gold, fell to less than $30 per ounce. Despite the sharp selling of the white metal after it reached $32.75, silver prices are still up by about 24% since the beginning of 2024 so far.

According to yesterday’s trading, the decline in the metals market may be a mixed bag. According to the results of the economic calendar, new JOLTS data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the number of US job openings fell to 8.069 million, the lowest level since February 2021. Clearly, this comes in addition to the poor economic data seen on Monday, which left some speculating that this would support the Federal Reserve to pull the trigger on cutting US interest rates. These expectations have fueled an ocean of red ink in the US Treasury market, with the yield on the 10-year note falling by 6.2 basis points to 4.34%. Thus, the news would normally be bullish for gold prices as lower interest rates would limit the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. However, market watchers believe that gold prices may head sideways ahead of the US jobs report for May on Friday. A weak reading could spark a short-term rally, while a strong reading would weigh on prices as the Fed would have the luxury of keeping interest rates high for longer. Overall, economists expect the US economy to have created 190,000 new jobs in May, and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.9%.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was unchanged at 104.14. The index has risen about 2.8% since the beginning of the year. A strong dollar is a bearish sign for dollar-priced commodities, making them more expensive for foreign investors to buy.

Meanwhile, other experts believe that the red ink flooding the commodity markets could also contribute to the decline in gold.

For now, the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates this week, while the Bank of Canada and the People’s Bank of China are also expected to ease policy conditions soon. Concurrently, investors are awaiting Wednesday’s ADP employment report and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data to gauge the health of the US economy and its impact on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

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Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:

According to the performance on the daily chart attached, the price of gold tends to decline. The next support level for the bears may be $2300 per ounce, and below it, they will think about returning to buying gold again as global geopolitical tensions are still ongoing and record gold purchases continue. Technically, the next most important support stations for the mentioned level are $2275 and $2260, and it is better to buy but without risk. On the other hand, lower than expected numbers for US jobs will give bulls the opportunity to move the price of gold higher.

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Mahmoud Abdallah
About Mahmoud Abdallah
Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.
 

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