- At the beginning of this week's trading, the gold price stabilized at $2500 per ounce, as markets traded around a range of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this month following a mixed US jobs report.
- Technically, the gold price retreated to a support level of $2485 per ounce before quickly rebounding and stabilizing around $2505 per ounce at the time of writing this analysis.
According to the results of the economic calendar, the US economy added fewer jobs than expected, with significant downward revisions to the June and July figures. However, the unemployment rate in the country fell to 4.2% as expected, and wage growth rose to 0.4%, exceeding expectations of 0.3%. However, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams stated that it is now appropriate for the US central bank to cut interest rates, pointing to progress in inflation and a slowdown in the Labor market. Overall, financial markets remain divided on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a more significant 25 or 50 basis points at its next meeting. However, they still expect a total of 125 basis points in rate cuts during the remaining Fed meetings this year.
A less restrictive monetary policy benefits gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing bullion assets.
Regarding factors affecting the gold market, the US dollar is stabilizing amid expectations of the Federal Reserve's outlook. According to trades, the US dollar index stabilized above the 101.1 level on Monday as investors continued to assess the potential range of expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this month following the mixed jobs report. The August payroll report released on Friday showed the US economy added fewer-than-expected jobs, although the unemployment rate fell, and wage growth remained strong. However, policymakers at the Federal Reserve continued to signal a willingness to ease policy amid concerns that the slowing Labor market could accelerate into something more serious if policy adjustment came too late.
Overall, financial markets remain divided on whether the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points at the September meeting. Now, investors are looking to key inflation data this week for more clarity on the path of prices.
According to Forex trading, the US dollar held steady against the euro and the pound and gained ground against the yen and yuan, but weakened against the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
Furthermore, another influencing factor in the market is the rise in US Treasury yields. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond rose to 3.76% on Monday, after touching a 15-month low of 3.71% on Friday. Clearly, traders are prepared for key Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports later in the week for more insights into inflation trends and clues about the next steps the Fed might take. Currently, investors are placing a nearly 75% chance that the Fed will cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points this month, while the likelihood of a larger 50 basis point cut has declined sharply to around 25%.
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Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:
According to the Gold Index, the overall trend for gold prices remains bullish and the stability above the psychological resistance of $2,500 per ounce confirms the strength of bulls’ control over the trend. If geopolitical tensions increase and global central banks continue to abandon tightening their monetary policy, gold may find the opportunity to achieve further gains. Currently, the closest resistance levels for gold are $2,525 and $2,555 per ounce. Technically, we still prefer to buy gold from every downward level. According to the performance on the daily chart attached, the closest support levels for gold are $2,475, $2,460 and $2,445 per ounce. Ultimately, Gold price will remain in its current path and surroundings until the reaction to the announcement of the US inflation figures and the announcement of the European Central Bank.
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