My previous signal on 19th December was not triggered as none of the key support or resistance levels were reached that day.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%
- Trades must be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6299, $0.6352, or $0.6388.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the 1H1 time frame H1H1H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6247, $0.6166, or $0.6126.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous AUD/USD forecast last Thursday that the AUD/USD currency pair was looking uncertain in its short-term direction, but was certainly in a strong bearish long-term trend.
I do not have much to add to this as markets open today. The bullish recovery we have seen since the price fell sharply to a new 2-year low last week looks weak and uncertain.
We have one indicator to watch which should give us a clue about what will probably happen next: the new support level at $0.6247 which is just below the current price.
If this level holds the price will rise to test the $0.6300 area. If the price breaks down quickly below this level, we could see a stronger move in the downwards direction.
This weak recovery is due mostly to Friday’s lower than expected PCE data in the USA which suggested that inflationary pressures are lower than the Fed thought at its policy meeting last Wednesday, which might raise the chance of a rate cut sooner rather than later. Right now, markets are not expecting another rate cut until March 2025.
I will be prepared to enter a new short trade if we get two consecutive lower hourly closes below $0.6247 during the London session today, if the two candlesticks have little lower wick.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning either the AUD or the USD.
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