Potential signal:
- I am a seller of this pair but need to see a bounce.
- I would be interested in shorting near the 0.65 level, with a stop at 0.66, and a target of 0.63 below.
The AUD/USD has fallen rather significantly during the trading session on Wednesday as we wait for the FOMC meeting. The FOMC meeting should bring in a 25 basis point rate cut. However, the question then becomes what does the statement say and perhaps more importantly, what does the press conference bring?
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After all, pretty much everybody knows that the US is cutting rates by 25 basis points. And as a result, it's been priced into the market. However, if you take a look over in China, the bond markets are suggesting economic slowdown over there, and that directly influences the Aussie dollar. The Australian economy is a major exporter into the Chinese mainland, so that's a big deal.
Things Look Dire at This Point
At this point, we are currently testing the 0.63 level. And if we break down below here, we could see the ASEAN ravel. The US dollar is possibly overbought at this point against almost everything that I follow. So, what I'm hoping for is going to be a bit of a bounce that I can start selling at the first signs of exhaustion. I would love to see the Australian dollar get to the 0.65 level so I could do that, but at this point, I don't know if we're going to get that opportunity. We may have to short this market after a bounce and signs of exhaustion at much lower levels.
The Australian dollar is in serious trouble. If you zoom out on the charts, you can see that somewhere around this area, the bottom opens up and we could drop another 200 pips. If we go below there, it's somewhat uncharted water. That being said, I would anticipate some type of bounce at one point or another, and perhaps Jerome Powell may make that happen, but I don't see a sustainable path higher for the Australian dollar in current conditions.
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