USD/PHP Forecast: Dollar Sideways Against Philippine Peso

• During my daily analysis of exotic currency pairs, I have been paying close attention to the 57.75 PHP level, as the Philippine peso has been strengthening quite nicely against the US dollar over the last 2 weeks.
• However, you should also keep in mind that the US dollar rallied quite aggressively to get to this area, forming a bit of a “double top” near the 59 PHP level.

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Technical Analysis

Looking at the technical analysis in this market, it’s worth noting that we formed a very erratic candlestick during the trading session on Friday as we are at an area that could be support. We are sitting between the 50 Day EMA and the 200 Day EMA indicators, and that of course can have its own influence as well. The 200 Day EMA is right around the 57.60 PHP level and is rising. I believe that is dynamic support, but I would also start to look at this through the prism of the fact that we are at the very end of the year, and it is of course a pretty small currency pair to begin with. Volume and liquidity would be a major issue at this point.

If we were to break down below the 200 Day EMA, then that opens up a move down to the 57 PHP level, but on the other hand, if we can break above the 50 Day EMA, then the US dollar more likely than not will go looking to the 59 PHP level yet again. Anything above that area would be obviously a very bullish turn of events, and then I think the market probably goes looking to the large, round, psychologically significant 60 PHP level.

Keep in mind that the economy in the Philippines has been very strong, but it also has been trending to the downside. For example, in the first three quarters of 2024, the GDP growth was 5.8%, which was below the government’s target of 6% to 7% for the year. Don’t get me wrong, that’s the type of growth that would make most countries happy, but it was a miss from expectations, and that could continue to be somewhat negative for the peso itself.

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