Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6180.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6315.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 0.6245 and a take-profit at 0.6325.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6175.
The AUD/USD pair moved sideways ahead of the upcoming US jobs data, Federal Reserve minutes, and a statement from Christopher Waller. It was trading at 06242, a 1% drop from this week’s high of 0.6300.
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FOMC minutes and US jobs data ahead
The AUD/USD pair was in a tight range as the market embraced a risk-off sentiment after strong US economic numbers. These numbers showed that the number of vacancies rose to the highest point in six months, while the non-manufacturing PMIs were better than expected.
The data led to a sudden increase in US bond yields, with the benchmark ten-year rising to 4.70%, its highest point since April last year. It has jumped from last year’s low of 3.65%, a sign that investors anticipate the Fed to maintain a hawkish tone.
The focus will be on the upcoming US economic data on Wednesday. ADP, the biggest payroll company in the United States, will release the latest private payroll data. Economists expect the data to reveal that the economy created 136k in December after creating 146k in the previous month.
The ADP report will be released two days before the official nonfarm payroll data. While these numbers are important, the Fed has hinted that it is now focusing on inflation, which has stagnated above the target point at 2% in the past few months.
The other key AUD/USD news will be a statement by Christopher Waller, a Fed board member. In that statement, he will likely reiterate his view that the bank should be cautious about interest rate cuts.
The pair will also react to the Fed minutes of the last meeting. Historically, these minutes provide more information about the committee’s thinking and what to expect in the next meeting.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The AUD/USD exchange rate has crashed in the past few months after peaking at 0.6942 in September. It bottomed at 0.6182 last week and gradually bounced back.
The pair has remained below the key support at 0.6350, the lowest swing on August 5. It has also formed a bearish flag, which is made up of a vertical line and a rectangle pattern. This pattern is one of the most bearish chart patterns.
The AUD/USD pair also formed a shooting star candlestick pattern, which suggests further downside. If this happens, the next point to watch will be 0.6182, its lowest level this month. A break above this week’s high of 0.6300 will point to more gains.
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