Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 92,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 102,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 97,000 and a take-profit at 102,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 92,000.
Bitcoin price erased gains made earlier this week as concerns about the rising bond yields continued. The BTC/USD pair retreated to below $97,000, erasing about 6% of this week’s gains. So, will Bitcoin bounce back or continue the ongoing downtrend?
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Bitcoin and other risky assets dropped sharply as American bond yields continued their uptrend. The 30-year bond yield jumped to a high of 4.92%, its highest level since October 2023. Also, the ten-year rose to 4.70%, while the 5-year is approaching 4.50%
These yields have been in a steady increase since the Federal Reserve delivered its December interest rate decision. In it, the committee slashed interest rates by 0.25% as most analysts expected. At the same time, the Fed hinted that it will deliver just two interest rate cuts this year.
The soaring yields is a sign that analysts anticipate that inflation will be stickier this year as Donald Trump implements his policies. While oil prices may fall, analysts expect that the other policies like tariffs, deportations, and tax cuts will stir inflation and make it difficult for it to hit the 2% target rate.
The BTC/USD pair will react to the upcoming Federal Reserve minutes, which will come out later today. These minutes will provide more information about what to expect in the coming meetings.
The pair will also react to the upcoming US jobs numbers. ADP will publish its estimate of private payrolls, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its report on Friday. Strong jobs numbers will point to a more hawkish Fed and more downside for risky assets.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has pulled back, erasing some of the gains made earlier this week. It formed a bearish engulfing chart pattern, characterized by a big bearish candlestick that comes after a bullish one. The candle must completely engulf the previous bearish one.
The BTC/USD pair has moved below the middle line of the Donchian Channel indicator. It has also moved slightly below the ultimate support of the Murrey Math Lines tool. There are signs that it has formed a subtle head and shoulders pattern.
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