Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 89,200.
- Add a stop-loss at 100,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 100,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 89,200.
The BTC/USD pair remained on edge on Monday morning as it reacted mildly to some major macro and crypto-related events. Bitcoin was trading at $95,585, where it has been at in the past few weeks. There are signs that a bullish breakout or a breakdown will happen soon.
BTC ignores the Bybit hack
Bitcoin price reacted mildly to the largest hack in the cryptocurrency industry. Lazarus Group, a hacking organization associated with the North Korean government, hacked Ethereum coins valued at over $1.4 billion from Bybit, the second-biggest crypto exchange in the world. It hacked these coins from its cold wallets, sending shockwaves in the crypto industry since cold wallets are believed to be the safest.
Bitcoin has also reacted mildly to the ongoing geopolitical issues that have pushed gold to the highest level on record. Donald Trump has started to negotiate with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine. He has hinted that he will want a deal between the two countries soon, lowering the geopolitical tensions.
At the same time, Trump has restarted his trade war with the top trading partners like Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union. He has already applied tariffs on Chinese goods valued at over $450 billion a year. Tariffs on imported steel and aluminium will kick off next week.
Similarly, the US will implement tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods next week if there is no deal on migration and other issues. He has also hinted that tariffs on the European Union will come out soon.
All these issues will have an impact on the US inflation, which will affect the next actions by the Federal Reserve. Economists expect the Fed will maintain a highly hawkish tone because of the rising inflation rate in the country.
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BTC/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a consolidation in the past few weeks. It was trading at 95,670 on Monday, where it has been stuck at in the past few weeks. The pair formed a double-top chart pattern at 108,277. Its neckline is at 89,200.
A double-top is one of the most bearish patterns in technical analysis. It has also moved slightly below the 50-day moving average. The pair has also formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, whose two lines are nearing their confluence level.
Therefore, the pair will likely have a bearish breakdown in the coming days. Such a move will likely push it to 89,200, its lowest point in January.
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