My previous AUD/USD signal on Thursday last week was not triggered as there was no bullish price action when the support level of $0.6299 was first reached.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.50%
- Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6323, $0.6348, or $0.6365.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Idea
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6237.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
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The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous forecast, I thought that there would be limited opportunity in this currency pair, except possibly a long trade from a bullish bounce at $0.6300. This did not set up.
In today’s AUD/USD forecast I see some weak bullish momentum in the AUD/USD currency pair which is bumping up against a resistance level at which is likely to be strong. So, this is likely to be today’ pivotal point.
I see the key factor today as risk-on sentiment which is dominating markets after Australian and British CPI data released earlier today came in later than expected, as well as President Trump’s dovish signs on the tariffs he will be implementing next week. Both factors will likely boost the Aussie a bit overall.
A short trade from $0.6223 may be appropriate if the first hourly candlestick after the London open closes very bearishly, but I see another potential opportunity as likely to be on the long side if we get two bullish hourly candlesticks closing consecutively higher above $0.6223, without any significant upper wicks on those candlesticks, especially the final one which is triggering the long trade entry.
Despite the more bullish environment, technically, a short trade from $0.6223 looks like a much better bet than a long trade above it, as there are several resistance levels above, but below $0.6223, the price has room to fall all the way to at least $0.6250.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning either the AUD or the USD.
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