The USD/BRL was trading near a low of 5.6320 last Wednesday, but since then the currency pair has seen a reversal upwards and yesterday close around 5.7600 appears to correlate with broad Forex sentiment.
The USD/BRL was able to produce a since downturn from the 11th of March until Wednesday the 20th. The USD/BRL went from a price of nearly 5.9000 to ratios which produced consideration of 5.6300. However, the past few days of trading has seen a reversal higher in the USD/BRL and the close near 5.7600 yesterday now has the currency pair at values last tested on the 14th of March in a sustained manner.
The move higher in the USD/BRL correlates well to the USD centric strength which has developed in Forex since Friday. The evidence that the USD/BRL touched a low on last Wednesday may also indicate financial institutions thought the currency pair had been oversold near the 5.6320 ratios. Day traders of the USD/BRL have a few considerations to contemplate in the short and near-term.
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USD/BRL Wagering Considerations
The ability of the USD/BRL to move lower in March was part of the bearish trend which began in earnest on the 18th of December when the currency pair attained highs around the 6.3000 level. The incremental move lower since then has been technically solid with reversals upwards occurring naturally as part of normal Forex conditions.
After testing lows last week and taking into consideration USD centric weakness was being displayed in the broad Forex market is logical, but financial institutions dealing with the Brazilian Real may also have factored that value around the 5.6500 to 5.6000 levels was also testing ratios seen before the U.S election of Donald Trump. The White House and its tariff rhetoric remain a focus for financial institutions and Brazil is certainly part of these considerations regarding potential actions.
USD/BRL Cautious Attitudes Leading up to the 2nd of April
The broad Forex market started producing stronger USD centric velocity on Friday. The notion that the USD had been too overbought is a consideration as part of potential risk adverse sentiment being generated while knowing the 2nd of April tariff date is approaching. With only a little more than one week away from the date, financial institutions may be bracing for an unexpected result and this could be leading to nervous buying of the USD/BRL.
- Day traders will need to be careful.
- The results the past few weeks, and few months shows that financial institutions are not as nervous as before regarding the Trump administration, but they must still take actions to protect themselves if there outlooks are unclear.
- Trading over the near-term may produce choppy results and will largely depend on broad market sentiment being generated globally.
- Traders should use solid risk taking tactics today and tomorrow in the USD/BRL and not get overly ambitious regarding price velocity.
Brazilian Real Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 5.7670
Current Support: 5.7570
High Target: 5.7820
Low Target: 5.7300
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