The USD/MXN has demonstrated stronger buying the past few days as it trades near 20.18340 ratio as of this writing, this after testing low water marks early last week, showing sentiment remains fragile.
News that the U.S White House may not implement its full package of threatened tariffs on the 2nd of April has not caused strong selling of the USD/MXN in early trading this morning. After challenging the 19.90000 vicinity early last week on selling pressure which was produced on the 13th and 14th of March which proved the 20.0000 support level wasn’t invincible, the USD/MXN has staged slight bullish momentum.
The USD/MXN did touch a high of nearly 20.27900 on Friday, but the currency pair ran out of power and there remains technical evidence of a correlation to the broad Forex market. Yes, financial institutions still remain nervous about the rhetoric coming from Washington D.C and Mexico City, but for the moment it appears resistance levels were durable and a wild run higher is not in the cards short-term.
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USD/MXN Perceptions and Nervous Reactions Remain Dangers
The ability of the USD/MXN to mostly trade below the 20.00000 level from the 14th until 19th of March was a solid result for the currency pair from a bearish perspective, considering the higher realms seen from November until early March. Financial institutions while still nervous about the potential of tariff negotiations to go badly, appear to still be leaning into the potential some sort of agreement between the U.S and Mexico will be accomplished.
Technically in the near-term, if the USD/MXN can maintain value under the 20.20000 level it may signal large traders believe mid-term outlooks for the Mexican Peso are more favorable. However, traders also need to take into consideration that risk appetite in the global financial markets – including U.S stock indices should be considered as a factor. If the USD/MXN were to break above the 20.30000 resistance mark near-term this would indicate perceptions have taken a dark tone again in the currency pair.
Range Trading Opportunities with Shadows Lurking
The recent trading of the USD/MXN has been interesting and the ability to maintain its lower price realms noteworthy. There is always a chance financial institutions have been too optimistic and that problems between President Trump and President Sheinbaum could escalate.
- However, the tendency of people to look at the brighter side of the coin may be helping bearish activity in the USD/MXN for the moment.
- Day traders may be tempted to look for reversals lower in the near-term, as long as there are no hysterical news developments regarding tariff negotiations going badly.
- Traders should not get overly ambitious regarding downside targets, but cautious selling positions which seek limited quick hitting ratios below may be attractive today and tomorrow when resistance levels are perceived.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 20.19200
Current Support: 20.18200
High Target: 20.21500
Low Target: 20.16100
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