Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
- Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 36.35.
- Set a stop-loss order below 36.15.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 36.77.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 36.75.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 36.90.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 36.30.
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Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair rose at the beginning of the week's trading, as the US dollar recovered some of its losses recorded last Friday. Despite the relatively strong movement of the pair during the end of last week, the pair settled in a limited trading range above the 36 lira levels.
In the medium term, the lira is expected to continue to decline amidst negative expectations from global banks for the future of the Turkish currency. The monetary policy pursued by the Turkish Central Bank, which stimulates monetary policy by reducing interest rates for the third consecutive meeting, affects this, despite the central bank governor's statements about adhering to tightening monetary policy. He confirmed that the Turkish Central Bank follows a flexible approach regarding setting interest rates at each meeting, as it continues to indicate the possibility of further reductions as inflation continues to decline. Based on current estimates, the inflation rate is expected to record 27% by the end of 2025, with a basic interest rate of 29%, despite the continued risks associated with the macroeconomy.
In this regard, the inflation rate is expected to record 27% by the end of 2025, with a basic interest rate of 29%, despite the continued risks associated with the macroeconomy. This may open the door for a 250-basis point interest rate cut in April. However, the central bank's decisions will depend on several key factors, including the volume of foreign currency deposits, exchange rate stability, and foreign exchange reserve levels. It is worth noting that the central bank shifted in February from buying foreign currencies to selling them, because of increased domestic demand for foreign currency. If pressures on the currency continue, the bank may resort to tightening its monetary policies, or reducing interest rates at a slower pace than expected, or even temporarily stopping the reductions.
TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
On the technical side, the USD/TRY pair rose during Asian trading on Monday morning. The price rose from the lower limit of the ascending price channel in which the price has been trading for several months, and the price returned to trading above the 50-moving average on the four-hour time frame, which represents a strong support level.
Currently, the Turkish lira price forecast indicates a continued decline of the Turkish currency against the dollar in the medium term, amidst the dominance of the general upward trend. The pair is expected to target the 36.75 lira and 36.99 lira levels, respectively.
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