Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
- Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 37.90.
- Set a stop-loss order below 37.45.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 40.50.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 40.35.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 41.50.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 37.15.
Turkish lira Analysis
The USD/TRY pair rose less than 38 lira at the beginning of the week's trading, after a series of measures taken by the Turkish Central Bank during the end of last week, which provided relative stability to the Turkish currency price. The most prominent of these measures, which aimed to tighten monetary policy, was the suspension of repurchase agreement auctions for a week, coinciding with the passage of a decision to raise the overnight lending interest rate to 46%.
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The Turkish lira had witnessed sharp losses during the past week, as the dollar rose to 42 lira levels following the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, the main political rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, on corruption charges, which İmamoğlu denies. This was before the decision to imprison him by a Turkish court yesterday, Sunday, amidst criticism of these measures internally and externally, describing them as politicized and undemocratic.
Meanwhile, the Turkish Capital Markets Board announced a set of new regulatory measures, in direct response to what it described as "recent developments" witnessed by the Istanbul Stock Exchange. These steps included banning short selling in the stock market, along with easing restrictions on listed companies' share repurchase operations, to calm volatility and maintain market stability. The board also decided to ease capital adequacy ratio requirements related to credit transactions in capital markets, in a move aimed at enhancing the resilience of financial companies and stimulating investment activity. These measures are scheduled to take effect from today, March, and continue until the end of the trading session on April 25.
The board explained that these measures come as part of its endeavour to ensure the capital market operates in a reliable, transparent, and efficient environment. Meanwhile, the maintaining a balance between stability and competitiveness, and protecting the interests and rights of investors.
TRYUSD technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
On the technical side, the USD/TRY pair rose slightly on Monday morning, trading around 38 lira levels, below the 61 Fibonacci level of the recent upward wave. Despite the recent decline from the peak recorded during the past week, the pair may be closer to rising, especially after breaking the narrow trading pattern range that the pair recorded through it in recent months.
Currently, the Turkish lira price forecast tends to continue the dollar's rise, as the pair targets 38.50 and 39.00 lira levels before reaching the previous peak again, even if the price reaches those target levels slowly.
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