Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3300.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3100.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3100.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3300.
The GBP/USD exchange rate continued its strong bull run, reaching its highest point since October last year as the US dollar index slumped. It rallied to a high of 1.3200, its highest point since October last year, and 9% above the lowest point this year.
UK and US economic data ahead
The GBP/USD pair continued soaring as the US dollar index, which weighs the greenback against a basket of currencies, remained below $100.
This price action happened as concerns about demand for the US dollar as a safe haven remained because of Donald Trump’s unilateral policy of tariffs. He has imposed a 10% tariff on all US tariffs, and a 25% levy on items like steel and aluminium.
The GBP/USD pair will react to the upcoming US economic numbers. Those to watch on Tuesday will be the export and import prices, which will provide more information on the health of the economy.
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These numbers comes a day after Christopher Waller, a Fed official, hinted that the bank will be ready to intervene in the market. Analysts expect the bank to cut interest rates if these tariffs lead to a significant slowdown.
The next key data to watch will be the UK inflation and retail sales numbers. Economists expect the data to show that the headline inflation rose from 2.8% in February to 3.2%, the highest point in months. The core CPI is expected to come in at 3.3%, down from the previous 3.5%.
More data is expected to show that the headline retail sales rose by 3.1%, down from 3.4% in the previous month. The steady inflation will likely make it hard for the Bank of England to start cutting interest rates.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the GBP/USD exchange rate has been in a strong uptrend after falling to a low of 1.2100 in January. It has formed an ascending channel, and is nearing its upper side.
The pair has moved to the ultimate resistance level of the Murrey Math Lines tool. It has also remained above the 50-day moving average, while the Relative Strength Index has pointed upwards.
Therefore, while the pair may continue rising, there is a risk that it will have a pullback as sellers target the lower side of the channel at 1.2820. A move above the upper side of the channel will point to further upside to last year’s high of 1.3425.
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