- During the trading session on Wednesday, we have seen the New Zealand dollar take off to the upside.
- At this point, the market has crossed the 50 Day EMA, but we still have not seen what the tariff announcement will be at the end of the trading session.
- Because of this, this is a market that could reverse at any moment.
That being said, we have been grinding higher in a very noisy channel since the beginning of the year, so it does look like we are trying to turn things around over the longer term. That doesn’t mean it will be easy, and it doesn’t mean that we are ready to sound the “all clear.”
Technical Analysis
In a situation where we don’t know what the external factors are going to be at the end of the day, we have to return to the technical analysis. Currently, we are just above the 50 Day EMA, which is a positive sign, but it’s also worth noting that somewhere near the 0.5760 level we have short term resistance. After that, then we have 0.5025 level. In that general vicinity, we start to see the 200 Day EMA reenter the picture. Anything above there is technically bullish, so right now I think we are in a “state of flux.” With this, I think you have to look at the market through a short-term timeframe, which shows just how noisy things are. Perhaps on the 30 minute chart you might get a bit more clarity, but longer-term trading is something that is still a little bit difficult to grasp at the moment.
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If we were to turn around a break down below the 0.5650 level, then I think you have a situation where the New Zealand dollar could really start to fall significantly. At that point, I think you’ve got a situation where we would drop another 150 pips rather quickly.
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