By: Dr. Mike Campbell
The western world is convinced that Iran is pursuing a programme to develop a nuclear weapon; something the Iranians have continuously and strenuously denied. The major powers have sought to induce, cajole and encourage Iran to give up her nuclear ambitions. The Americans and the Israelis have made it clear that a nuclear armed Iran will not be permitted and that military action could be taken to ensure that this does not happen. Intelligence analysts are suggesting that Iran could be just months away from developing a viable weapon, so the stakes are mounting.
No sane person wants war and even a limited “surgical” strike could spiral out of control, so whilst time remains, further economic pressure is being used to persuade the Iranian regime to negotiate. On Saturday, Iran was effectively isolated from the global financial system when the Society for Worldwide International Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) excluded Iran from the system in compliance with EU and other international sanctions. Almost all of the world’s banking transfers use the Belgium-based SWIFT system. The move will have an immediate impact on Iran’s petrochemical industry and will also make it very hard for Iranian’s living abroad to send money back to family in Iran.
In a further move to tighten the economic stranglehold on Iran, foreign exchange facilities in neighbouring UAE will no longer accept Iranian Rials in exchange for foreign currency, further inhibiting Iran’s access to hard currencies.
The USA has legislation on the books permitting sanctions against any nation purchasing oil from Iran since December 2011. Under the legislation, any foreign financial institution that has not shown evidence of significantly reducing its Iranian oil imports by the end of June will have any US bank accounts cut off. The State Department has just announced that it will refrain from invoking sanctions against 10 EU states and Japan since they had taken steps to reduce their requirements for Iranian oil. India, China and South Korea are amongst a group of Iranian oil importing nations that have not been exempted from these measures. Sovereign nations not closely allied to the USA may bridle at US attempts to interfere with their bilateral relations with Iran, but hopefully all will accept that this is a better option than a military adventure – if it bears fruit.