The UK is living on borrowed time. It was due to leave the EU on the 29th of March 2019, but a key piece of legislation, the EU Withdrawal Bill could not be passed. Ultimately, this caused the UK to ask the EU to extend the notice period under Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon, twice. The current extension will expire on 31st of October 2019 and unless the nation either approves the EU Withdrawal Bill (or something similar that the EU will accept), asks for a further extension (realistically either for a general election or a further referendum) or revokes notification it will leave on 1st November 2019 with not transitional period under a “no deal” scenario.
It should have been the case that earnest, frank discussions took place with all stakeholders to see if common ground could be found which would permit a brokered exit. Whilst talks took place, it has been pretty obvious that neither opposition nor government were prepared to move from their opening positions in any significant way.
In what most commentators are describing as a simple repackaging exercise, Mrs May has said that she will present a reworked European Withdrawal Bill in the first week of June. Whilst she has identified ten points which she claims makes this a “new, bold offer”, they are either points long conceded or cosmetic measures which are unlikely to survive long after she leaves office. She is due to announce the timetable for her departure once the Bill is presented.
The “new” Bill has not won any friends, infuriating hard Brexit supporters in the Conservative Party with some MPs who backed her at the last attempt declaring that they will oppose the new bill and Labour’s leadership has made it clear that they will also reject it.
The continuing impasse and the prospect of a “no deal” exit have sent the Pound to four-month lows against other major currencies. Whilst a majority of Tory MPs are opposed to a “no deal” exit, it is said to be popular within the party’s membership. This means that there is a significant chance that the next leader of the party may endorse such an approach (however economically suicidal).