Get the latest Forex and market news around the world for Tuesday, March 31, 2020 here.
- The global coronavirus pandemic continues to increase exponentially from its epicenter in Europe and the U.S.A, with 40% of the world’s population now under lockdown restrictions which are causing very significant economic damage. A global recession appears to be inevitable, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a 23% drop in U.S. GDP and other analysts seeing a 30% unemployment rate in the near future. If correct, these will be the worst such numbers since the 1930s.
- The rate of increase in fatalities and new confirmed cases is now declining in hard-hit Europe, especially in Italy, providing hope that lockdowns are beginning to show results. However, the daily death toll in Europe is not falling yet.
- The strongest growth of the virus in the world now is happening in New York City and New York State, with the U.S.A. now leading the world in number of confirmed cases. In Europe, the United Kingdom and France appear statistically to be on course for an Italian-style outcome, with Spain heading for something even worse.
- World stock markets, especially in the U.S.A., seem to have stabilized on confirmation of the passage of a $2 billion rescue package by the U.S. Congress. However, many analysts believe that stock markets remain prone to further sharp sell-offs ahead. The Japanese stock market closed down on a pessimistic World Bank report on the impact of coronavirus in Asia.
- WTI Crude Oil has recovered from its 18-year low to again trade above $20, but it still looks weak.
- Currency markets appear to be consolidating and showing no clear direction today.
- Markets are affected by high relative volatility, although it is decreasing. This provides opportunities for traders, but close monitoring of trades on short time frames is very advisable due to the strength and speed of price movements.
- The key factor in markets today will likely be what month-end price movements we see today in stock markets. The U.S. CB Consumer Confidence data due later will give some window into the state of consumer demand in the U.S.A.