By: Doug Rosen
Analyzing this pair today and looking at the weekly chart I see that we are in the midst of a fib war. Price seems to be trapped in between a 50.0 fib of the last move up and a 50.0 fib of the recent swing down. Generally a situation like this will lead into a consolidation pattern, range bound price action for a bit. On the weekly chart price is also trapped in between the 21 ema and the 5 ema. The 21 is above price and the 5 is below.
Looking at the daily chart we are coming off the 50.0 fib of the recent swing down overlapped with a 14 and 233 ema above price with the stochastics in the overbought zone ready to cross down and this is obviously a bearish sign which means USD strength, however, the 13 ema is crossing above the 21 ema soon to catch up to price and looks as though it could give price a lift upward.
Price is above last month's high and price is also above the weekly central pivot point and the hourly 5 is beginning to cross above the 13 ema and stochastics is heading up. Finally, looking at the 15 minute chart it looks like price is heading up and that price is riding the 5 ema up. Stochastics is crossing up as well. The daily central pivot point is at 1.3791 and if price breaks the psychological level of 1.3800, I think price will keep heading on up today. 1.3791 is today's central pivot point and it is nearly overlapped with the 38.2 fib level of the recent move down, however, the upper Bollinger band is open and pointing up, and the swiss is looking bearish which correlates with this pair being bullish.
