The EUR/USD pair went back and forth during the session on Thursday, only to end up a sickly unchanged. As we get closer towards the top of the recent consolidation area, it is going to be more and more difficult for the buyers to take control. I believe that the talks going on in with congressional leaders currently will continue to dominate the headlines as well, so there is always a potential move back towards the US dollar as a "safety trade."
With all that being said, I would first bring your attention to the fact that the latest low was higher than some of the previous ones. It appears that we put in a double bottom of the 1.29 area, and as such I believe this is going to be the bottom for the foreseeable future. Presently, I still see the 1.3150 level been overly resistive, and would hesitate to buy this pair all the way up here as I think it should continue to offer quite a bit of resistance.
Noisy above
I see quite a bit of noise above the 1.3150 handle as well. Based upon the descending triangle that says down below the 1.30 handle earlier this year, there is probably going to be quite a bit of resistance all the way to about 1.3450 or so. Because of this, I prefer and hope to play this more as a range bound currency pair over the next couple of weeks if not months.
Since we are getting so close the top of this range in it is also a Friday I believe that we may see a bit of a move higher, but will be faded later in the day as traders go home for the weekend. After all, there are a lot of headline risks out there, and liquidity should start to dry up over the next several sessions. With this in mind, it would make sense that traders simply would not risk trying to break through this next barrier. Because of this, I expect there will be short-term trading opportunities late in the day to fade is already somewhat overextended move.