In my analysis of this pair on 24th July I made this prediction:
In trying to see what will happen next, how today's daily bar forms will be crucial. The more of the following levels it closes below at midnight GMT tonight, the more bearish the outlook:
1. Yesterday's open at 0.9256.
2. The upper trend line of the bearish channel and the resistance/support level at 0.9248.
3. The weekly open at 0.9175.
If 1 and 2 happen, it should be safe to turn bearish and look for short trades, targeting all the way down to 0.9034.
That day actually closed below all three of those levels, at 0.9135. The pair then rose back to almost 0.9300 before turning very bearish and falling all the way down to about 0.8850. So there might have been false starts with any early shorts, but the prediction was very sound:
Looking to the future, starting with the weekly chart, we see that recent price action is dominated by the bearish reversal candle of two weeks ago. Its high at 0.9287 has not been broken despite last week's quite long bullish candle. There are some resistance levels close above that, drawn from highs and lows of weekly candles. So the weekly chart is still telling a bearish story:
The daily chart adds little clarity, except to show that the recent rise has been consistent and parabolic, which is a bullish sign. Every day last week closed up. The RSI(14) has broken the crucial 50 level, and upper trend lines have been just about broken by a daily close - also bullish signs:
Although the highs and lows of recent previous days look like perfectly good points to look for longs, given recent buying momentum, the true test of whether this pair is turning really bullish will be closes above all the three resistance levels overhead, i.e. above 0.9344. Strong bearish reversals anywhere between 0.9287 and 0.9344 could be good opportunities for short trades. Look to exit shorts at conservative support levels, or at least to protect profits there.
A strong break above 0.9344 is the cue to look for more aggressive longs. In the meantime look to take long profits before 0.9287.