On March 24, 2013, Christopher Lewis forecast how the USD/JPY pair would move in April 2014. In the analysis, seen here, he wrote:
The price should hit the 100.00 level.
The 100.00 level will be a major barrier over the longer term, and therefore it should act as major resistance during this second quarter.
Let’s now take a look and see what happened during the second quarter of 2013 to see if Chris’ predictions turned out to be accurate:
The shaded blue area shows the period of the second quarter on the daily chart above.
We can see:
The price did indeed hit the 100.00 level indicated by the solid red line in the chart above.
The price approached the 100.00 level twice during the first half of the quarter but was unable to quite reach it let alone break it, so Chris’ description of 100.00 as major resistance was being borne out.
However, during May, the 100.00 level was broken significantly to the upside by over 3%, suggesting that 100.00 would no longer be valid as resistance. Despite that, within a couple of weeks the price fell sharply and the retreated back below the 100.00 level, which then went on to act as major resistance for most of the remainder of 2013. Therefore it would seem to have been a very good forecast, erring somewhat only in its underestimation of the strength of the fall in JPY against the USD that was coming.