The EUR/USD pair fell slightly during the session on Friday, and what was an otherwise quiet trading environment. The market didn’t even reach all the way to the 1.15 handle, so that of course has me wondering whether or not the sellers aren’t stepping back in a little bit at this point in time? Because of that, I have to think that the downside is still most certainly favored, and as a result I like selling this pair. I would prefer to see it closer to the 1.15 level when I did so, but at the end of the day you have to take what the market gives you sometimes.
The trend is most certainly to the downside, and I see a significant amount of resistance above the 1.15 handle anyway. Quite frankly, I think that there is resistance all the way to roughly 1.1650, and then of course starting at the 1.18 handle again and extending all the way to the 1.20 level. In other words, there is far too much in the way of resistance above to even consider buying the Euro at this point in time.
Ukraine
I read some nonsense on the internets about how the peace agreement in the Ukraine was lifting the Euro. If that were true, that excuse is gone as I read on Saturday that the fighting continues. With that being the case, anybody who stepped into the marketplace to pick up the Euro based upon that is already in trouble. This is the exact type of trade I hate, the one where people get involved for what “should” happen, and not what “is” happening. Those are two totally different setups, with one being based upon what you expect to happen, and the other one being based upon reality.
As I stated earlier, I don’t see a clear path to go long of this market until we get above the 1.20 handle at the moment. That doesn’t mean things can change, but when it does tell me is that the risk simply isn’t worth taking as far as going long. With that in mind, I am only looking for resistive candles to sell this pair again and again.
