Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was no bearish price action at 1.2928.
Today’s GBP/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades must be taken before 5pm London time today only.
Protect any open trade by 10pm London time.
Long Trades
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2921 or 1.2831.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade 1
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.3075, 1.3117 or 1.3136.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
GBP/USD Analysis
We have now seen the price bullishly get above the upper trend line of a long-term triangle, and as the price rises gently it remains contained within a well-defined bullish channel, clearly shown in the chart below. The lower trend line of this channel is likely to be supportive if reached, as well as the blue horizontal levels shown.
The strengthening of the Pound suggests that markets are believing a firm Conservative victory is very likely in the British General Election today. If exit polls confirm this, then it can be expected that the price will rise by at least 100 pips more. If exit polls show the Conservatives losing their Parliamentary majority, a major downwards movement of several hundred pips is quite possible.
Many analysts are suggesting a Conservative failure is very possible and that it would not be very bad for the Pound. I strongly disagree on both counts. Odds in the betting markets are currently showing a Conservative majority between 75 and 100 seats as the most likely outcome.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time. Concerning the GBP, there is a general election being held today in Britain, with exit polls due at 10pm.