Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were ever reached.
Today’s USD/JPY Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered from 8am New York time until 5pm Tokyo time, over the next 24-hour period.
Short Trades
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 106.75 or the descending trend line shown in the price chart below, which is currently sitting at about 107.06.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trades
Long entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 106.16 or the ascending trend line shown in the price chart below, which is currently sitting at about 105.69.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/JPY Analysis
I wrote yesterday that it looked as if the triangle will last for more hours, so the best approach would probably be to trade any convincing rejection of either triangle trend line. I had no directional bias. This turned out to be a good approach, as the price just continued to grind upwards very slowly, printing some new support and resistance levels very close to the current price as at the time of writing, but the levels do not look especially reliable, except the most distant ones. Essentially, the technical picture remains unchanged: a consolidating triangle that is most likely to give opportunities from rejections of the trend lines. However, with the FOMC release later today, there is a chance that the triangle may be broken on either side, at least temporarily, due to the volatile price movements that are likely in this pair upon such an event.
There is nothing due today concerning the JPY. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Crude Oil Inventories at 2:30pm London time, followed by the FOMC Statement, Economic Projections, and Federal Funds Rate at 6pm, followed later by the usual press conference.