Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bearish price action at either 0.9982 or 1.0010.
Today’s USD/CHF Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today only.
Short Trades
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal upon the next touch of 0.9988.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trades
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal upon the next touch of 0.9918 or 0.9898.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/CHF Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that it seemed completely impossible to make any technical case why the price should move in a particular direction, so I would avoid trading this pair for now. This was a reasonably good call, as the price has not moved a great deal in any particular direction. However, the technical picture is starting to look more clearly defined, so there may begin to be some opportunities here in this currency pair. A strong break below the supportive trend line, perhaps after another rejection of the resistance level at 0.9988, could see a stronger fall down to at least 0.9918, so I would take a bearish bias if that happens. This looks to be a more probable outcomes than a rise, but a bullish break and hold above 0.9988 could be taken as a bullish sign. However, the beginning of a move down from a psychologically key area around parity (1.0000) is likely to have a better probability of generating opportunities on the short side.
There is nothing important due today concerning either the CHF or the USD.