Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as the bullish price action took place just below the anticipated support level shown at the earlier supportive ascending trend line.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered between 8am New York time Monday and 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trades
- Long entry following some bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7115, or 0.7105.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trades
- Short entry following some bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7144 or 0.7164.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that this trendless pair was showing a wide, dominant consolidating triangle, which was likely to hold. The action looked slightly heavy so I thought that the best opportunity might come with a decisive, strong break below 0.7070, which should send the price at least 20 or 30 pips lower.
I was right that the structure would hold, and although 0.7070 was briefly broken, it was not yet a strong break by the time it reversed.
I have redrawn the upper trend line of the triangle to fit the current action. It could be argued this readjustment is a bullish sign, but I find it unconvincing.
This pair looks difficult to trade – there is no trend and the consolidative swings continue, so I take no bias here today.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Retail Sales data at 12:30pm London time followed by ISM Manufacturing PMI at 2pm. Concerning the AUD, there will be a release of Building Approvals data at 12:30am followed by the RBA Rate Statement at 3:30am.