EURUSD: Bears still face 1.1000 obstacle
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish price action at 1.1021.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1016 or 1.1097.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Idea
Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.0959.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that the picture seemed to have become more bullish, as the price was holding up. I saw both support and resistance levels as likely to hold over the day. This was not an accurate call as the price fell quite heavily during the New York session.
The technical picture has become more complicated as well as more bearish, as the price is clearly below a new pivotal point at 1.1016, but the round number at 1.1000 is still holding which suggests support in that area. If the bears can get the price established below 1.1000, that would be a bearish sign. I would take a bearish bias later today if we get two consecutive hourly closes below 1.0985.
Concerning the EUR, the ECB will release its Monetary Policy Statement and Main Refinancing Rate at 12:45pm London time, followed by the usual press conference 15 minutes later. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of CPI (inflation) data at 1:30pm.