The Euro rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to see a lot of bullish pressure and we broke above the 50 day EMA. Having said that, the 1.10 level above should offer plenty of resistance, so I think we are going to see a bit of a fight ahead over the next 24 hours. After all, it is a psychologically significant figure, and therefore it’s something that people will be paying attention to.
Ultimately, the 200 day EMA above at the 1.1050 level will offer a significant amount of resistance as well, so I think it’s only a matter of time before this market turns over. The Euro course has a huge list of issues behind it that could cause major problems, but it has gotten a bit of a reprieve due to the Federal Reserve pumping so much liquidity into the markets and of course throwing dollars around like never before. Having said that though, if the economy is in fact going to slow down globally, there will be more need for US dollars going forward.
Yes, I recognize that we have had a nice bounce but when you zoom out a bit and take a look at the overall markets, we have swung wildly, and it looks as if we are finally slowing down some of that noisy trading. That shows that we could be going back to more of a fundamental situation, meaning that the Euro should continue to lose over the longer term. This doesn’t mean that we can’t rally a bit from here, but I think it’s only a matter of time before we can start selling again. I’m going to look at the 1.10 level above for signs of exhaustion that I can start selling, for the next move lower, that is probably going to go down to the 1.08 level. It’s not until we break above the 1.11 level that I would convince that we could continue to go further. Quite frankly, I think all we need is a little bit of trouble to send this market right back down as it’s been a while since we’ve had a scary selloff in the stock markets. We are closing towards the top of the range, so that means that “everything is awesome” again, but we have seen this movie one too many times the think that it simply going to stick forever.