AUD/USD: Struggling to get established above 0.7000
Last Thursday’s signals produced a bullish bounce from the support level at 0.6907 but the price action on the hourly chart was not strong enough to justify a long trade entry.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered between 8 am New York time Monday and 5 pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6885.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the lowest recent price.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry at the first touch of 0.7109.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the highest recent price.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that the technical picture was already weakly bullish, and so if the U.S. non-farm payrolls release was seen as more positive for global risk sentiment than for the U.S. Dollar as a currency, we could expect the price to break beyond the resistance level at 0.6939.
The release was positive, and this level was broken.
The price here has continued to advance as risk appetite continues to approve globally, with stock markets continuing to rise.
The problem here for bulls is that although conditions are generally bullish, the price is finding it hard to get established above the recent bearish inflection points not far below the key psychological round number at 0.7000.
A general problem for anyone wanting to trade this pair now is that the RBA will be making their major monthly policy release late in the forthcoming Asian session, which could push the price around with an unpredictable spike or two.
I will take a bullish bias here on this pair if we get two consecutive hourly closes above 0.7000.
Concerning the USD, there will be a release of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data at 3 pm London time. Regarding the AUD, the RBA will be releasing its Rate Statement and Cash Rate at 5:30 am.