EUR/USD: Long-term bullish trend remains
Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered as none of the key levels were reached during the London session that day.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken before 1 pm London timetoday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1875 or 1.1929.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1786 or 1.1745.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that I expected the price to reach the support at 1.1786, which I expected to be quite a strong support level, so I am still prepared to take a long trade if we get a bullish bounce there. I also thought that a break below 1.1685 would be a very bearish sign if it happened.
This was mostly a good call, although the price did not reach the support level at 1.1786 until the next day when it gave a firm bullish bounce there which was a long opportunity for swing traders and scalpers.
The market is likely to be quiet today, especially after lunchtime in London, as New York is on a major public holiday today. Volume trade will be thinner than usual so price movement will probably be slight.
In this environment, support and resistance levels are more likely than usual to hold. The best approach to trading this currency pair today is likely to be scalping from reversals at 1.1786 or (more likely) 1.1875.
The price is evenly balanced between bulls and bears on short and medium-term time frames. However, there is a long-term bullish trend that is still valid, so long trades are more likely to have further to run.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either the EUR or the USD. It is a public holiday today in the U.S.A.