Choppy trading conditions in the USD/INR have been prevalent the past month, but the overwhelming highlight via the Forex pair remains its rather dominant bullish move higher. After reaching a high of nearly 74.6700 only two days ago, yesterday’s trading produced a low of 74.3800. Early this morning, the USD/INR has reacted to behavioral sentiment for the USD being affected by inflation data, with a higher move again in the Forex pair.
As of this writing, the USD/INR is near the 74.5800 mark and the ability of the Forex pair to sustain these highs which have been demonstrated early this week stirs the notion that loftier values seen last week could become the focal point for speculators. On the 8th of July, the USD/INR did touch the 74.8600 ratio and traders may suspect the Forex pair could test this mark sooner rather than later.
Incrementally, the USD/INR continues to show that support levels are incrementally increasing and, although short-term conditions have proven choppy, buying on slight reversals lower may prove to be an attractive wager for speculators. There is no denying the USD/INR had produced a solid bearish turn after testing highs in April of approximately 75.5000 when a coronavirus wave engulfed India. The lows produced in late June near 73.3500 though, are beginning to feel like a distant memory.
Speculative bulls are urged not to become overly greedy, there is little reason to believe the heights of April’s surge higher will be attained. Traders who pursue buying positions should keep their goals realistic and aim for current resistance levels. If a trader has attained profits and has the stamina to stay in a winning position because they believe the USD/INR will continue to rise, they should raise their stop-loss positions to protect most of their profits, so they do not vanish on sudden reversals which could emerge.
The 74.5000 currently looks important for the USD/INR, if this value continues to see sustained price action above this juncture it could definitely be interpreted as a bullish signal. Resistance junctures near the 74.6500 to 74.7500 marks should be watched, if these levels are challenged traders should expect volatility.
It is quite possible the USD/INR is overbought in many technical traders’ eyes, but its trend continues to produce a test of resistance levels. The trend within the Forex pair since early June has been higher and until a sustained bearish move breaks support levels consistently, buying the USD/INR may prove to be the correct path.
Indian Rupee Short-Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 74.6500
Current Support: 74.4900
High Target: 74.7700
Low Target: 74.3900