Bullish View
Buy the AUD/USD and set a take-profit at 0.7500.
Add a stop-loss at 0.7400.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish View
Sell the AUD/USD and set a take-profit at 0.7380.
Add a stop-loss at 0.7500.
The AUD/USD rose for the fifth consecutive day as investors continued focusing on the latest American non-farm payroll numbers. The pair is trading at 0.7455, which is about 5% higher than the lowest level in August.
RBA Decision Ahead
The Australian dollar rose against the US dollar on Monday morning as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) started its monthly monetary policy meeting.
The RBA decision comes at a time when the Australian economy is not doing well. Commodity prices like iron ore have become volatile while the country is seeing high COVID-19 cases.
The impact of the Delta variant on the Australian economy became evident last week when the country’s bureau of statistics published weak economic numbers. The data showed that retail sales declined in July as the number of cases rose.
Additional data by Markit and the Australian Industry Group (AIG) showed that Australia’s Manufacturing and Services PMI weakened in the previous month.
Therefore, with states like New South Wales (NSW) in a lockdown, there is a likelihood that the RBA will have a relatively cautious take. In this, the bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.25%. It is also likely to maintain its quantitative easing (QE) unchanged.
The AUD/USD is also rising after the relatively weak American jobs numbers. On Friday, data by the American government showed that hiring dramatically slowed down in August as the country dealt with the new pandemic.
In total, the economy created just 235k jobs in August, a dramatic decrease from the revised 1.1 million that were created in July. On a positive note, the unemployment rate declined from 5.4% to 5.2% while the participation rate remained unchanged at 61.7%. Wages also rose by 4.3%.
Therefore, the mixed data will likely push the Fed to pause on its planned tapering of asset purchases as officials watch the impact of the delta variant.
AUD/USD Forecast
The hourly chart shows that the AUD/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few days. This rally is being supported by the 25-period and 50-period exponential moving averages (EMA). It has also moved above the upper side of the ascending channel pattern.
Also, the MACD remains above the neutral line. Therefore, the pair will likely keep pushing higher as investors eye the next key resistance level at 0.7500.
