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BTC/USD Forex Signal: Looking Weak

By Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

There are signs of a potential temporary bottom near $20k.

Previous BTC/USD Signal

My last signal on Tuesday could have produced a long trade from the bullish pin bar rejecting the support level I had identified at $20,910, but I did make it clear bias remained bearish below $24,016.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $19,977 or $19,578.
  • Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $23,000 or $24,016.
  • Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my last analysis on Tuesday that strong risk-off sentiment in the market had created a very bearish situation, but also there were initial signs that the price may be making a bottom just above $20k. I was looking for a short trade from a bearish reversal at the nearest key resistance level, which was situated at $24,016, likely to be the day’s pivotal point.

This was a good call as although $24,016 was not reached, the price has remained bearish below that, but the tentative bottom I called around $20k has also held.

We are now seeing a bearish consolidation between $20k and $23k, with the current dominant wave at the time of writing being bearish.

Yesterday’s FOMC statement and projections produced a minor relief rally which pushed the price up, but it ran out of steam here quite quickly at $23k.

I think shorter-term traders can enter short trades at pullbacks within bearish waves closer to $23k than $20k if the available spread is acceptable. Longer-term traders should look for a short from another reversal at $23k or wait for a daily close below $19,500 which would be a very bearish sign.

A daily close below $19,500 will indicate that Bitcoin is ready to take a bearish trip to as low as $13k.

The entire crypto ecosystem is showing severe signs of strain. However, we may see buying at the $20k area, but below $20k we will see a big wave of forced institutional liquidations which will be quite likely to trigger a further strong fall in the price of Bitcoin.

I personally will not take any long trades here under any circumstances.

BTC/USD

There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either Bitcoin or the US Dollar.

Adam Lemon
About Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

 

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